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Projected Impact of the Baby Boomlet
Introduction
The much heralded baby boomlet is poised on the doorstep of higher education. Florida's Department of Education high school graduation projections indicated an increase of approximately thirty thousand between 1995-96 and 2002-2003 - from 90,392 to 125,227. These students will produce many of the community college system's first-time-in-college (FTIC) enrollments for 1996-97 to 2003-2004.
Method
The attached pages present the results of the State Board of Community College's projections of the impact of this boomlet on both the FTE and headcount of the system. Also included are tables indicating these same projections for each college. The FTE projections are based upon the 1994-95 FTE generated for each college by prior year graduates from public high schools. It was assumed that the same relationship between the number of previous year high school graduates and the number of current year FTE would hold for future years. The headcount projections are based upon the percent of previous year high school graduates enrolled during the current year as reported in the SBCC Accountability Report for 1995, Measure 1. Again, it was assumed that this same relationship would hold for future years.
Results
The results of this process indicate that by 2003-2004, the system will be producing over six thousand more FTE than it does now. The cumulative impact over the eight years of projections is slightly over 27,000 FTE. If a conservative estimate of fifty percent is used for a second year of enrollment, the total cumulative impact of these 139,000 additional high school graduates will be slightly more than 40,500 FTE.
The results for headcount indicate that by 2003-2004, the system will be serving an additional twelve thousand students compared to the current number just from the increase in high school graduation. The cumulative impact for the eight projected years is 50,000 additional students.
Limitations
The high school graduation counts are limited to public high schools only. No effort was made to determine the corresponding trend in private high school graduates. These high school projections were produced in 1995 using what is known as a steady state model, i.e., the forces in effect at the time of the projections will remain in effect. Any changes in legislation that might impact graduation rates, such as raising the required high school graduation GPA from a 1.5 to a 2.0, would obviously change the projections.
Conclusions
The projected baby boomlet will have an impact on both the number of incoming FTIC's and the FTE's generated. However, at the system level, that effect will be minimal since the projected change is less than 6,000 FTE for any one year, except 2003-04. That number of FTE is dwarfed by the system's overall FTE of approximately 195,000. The same can be said for the changes in headcount. The real impact will be felt on individual college campuses such as Broward, Edison and Pasco-Hernando that have a high percentage of their FTE generated by prior year high school graduates.
For further information please contact:
Dr. Patricia "Pat" Windham, Director
Office of Educational Effectiveness and Research
Florida Division of Community Colleges
1340 Turlington Building
325 West Gaines Street
Tallahassee, Florida 32399-0400
(904)488-0555 Ext. 172
SunCom: 278-0555 Ext. 172
Fax: (904)-488-9763
E-mail: Pat@dcc.firn.edu